Sky is an onchain stablecoin, savings and capital-allocation system. SKY is a governance/capital token, not equity or a contractual share of its assets or revenue.
Full research cutoff29 Sep 2026Ledger reconciliation23 Oct 2026Score state30 Sep 2026CoverageLiving Coverage
Structural Token Opportunity
65 / 100
Warranted range 62–71
Confidence Medium
Range reflects disagreement warranted by current evidence, not future catalyst success.
System Profile Current-ledToken Archetype Capture-leaning — surplus-funded acquisition/staking/burn
Structural Token Opportunity is a durable structural assessment. It is not a price forecast, expected-return estimate, buy/sell recommendation, or current valuation score. STO measures structural token opportunity, not whether a token is attractive at today’s price. It does not score current valuation, near-term catalysts, entry conditions, market regime, flows or portfolio context.
Research assessment based on audited deep research, reconciled with the canonical Ledger. This curated projection is not the internal forensic monograph. Public publication remains subject to human review.
On this assessment
Current thesis
How do Sky’s retained economics reach SKY?
Sky operates an approximately $11B-scale financial book with genuine retained economics after savings and ordinary operating costs. Prime settlement returns substantial economics to Sky Core, even though separate Agent entities and tokens retain residual value. Balance-sheet claims, collateral market value, gross yield, Net Revenue and post-distribution surplus are different objects. The financial reporting is unaudited management/onchain analytics, not GAAP/IFRS accounts.
Current policy directs 22% of original Net Revenue into outside-market SKY purchases: 18% for staking rewards and 4% for purchase-and-burn. Actual market acquisition and permanent destruction are verified. This is a current capture system, but most purchased SKY can later be distributed and sold; holders have no fixed profit claim.
Mobile savings funding, correlated credit/stablecoin risks and modest dedicated reserves can make capital rebuilding take priority over token capture. Normal issuance is cleaner, but exceptional recapitalization dilution remains policy-authorized and technically possible.
Primary bypass / failure mechanism
The financial system can remain operating while lower yields, mobile funding, credit losses and reserve rebuilding divert surplus from SKY acquisition. Agents can retain some economics and governance can redirect the waterfall. Protocol survival therefore does not guarantee strong token economics.
The synchronized 21 September snapshot showed about $89.66M dedicated Sky Reserves against $309.98M Sky-attributed Required Risk Capital: 28.93% coverage. RRC is a standardized model, not expected loss or a tail-loss ceiling; Prime first-loss and wider backstop capital also exist. Correlated stress can still impair acquisition and prompt dilution.
Why it scores here
Large, profitable onchain financial system with live surplus-funded outside-market SKY purchases, staking and a now-live permanent-burn leg. Normal-state issuance is cleaner than the old score implied.
Selected major Connections
Selected connections — curated, not exhaustive. Selection emphasizes mechanism, limits and contrasting token implications, not institution prestige.
Grove / GalaxySKYinstitutional crypto-backed warehouse lendingLive scaled productionToken implication → inspect limitscontributes to Sky earnings; no automatic direct SKY requirement from the loan book.SKY-GALAXY-WAREHOUSE-01 · expand to understand
Galaxy DigitalSKYinstitutional treasury, collateral and direct SKY demandLive productionToken implication → inspect limitsdirect externally funded SKY demand plus USDS demand.SKY-GALAXY-BILATERAL-01 · expand to understand
Galaxy Digital
access / distribution · Capital & market access
SKY · scope-specific stage: Live production
institutional treasury, collateral and direct SKY demand
Canonical participating scope: Galaxy Digital
Galaxy placed $100M of treasury into sUSDS, approved sUSDS as collateral across its institutional trading business and disclosed a direct SKY purchase.
Sky / Grove / institutional asset portfolioSKYtokenized Treasuries and RWA exposureLive scaled productionToken implication → inspect limitscontributes to earnings but not direct mandatory SKY demand.SKY-RWA-BOOK-01 · expand to understand
System activity, retained economics, outside acquisition and final token destination are separate proving steps.
01Proven
Financial activity produces retained economics
Stablecoin funding supports diversified lending/RWA/Prime activity. Net Revenue deducts savings and ordinary expenses; NII and gross yield are not protocol profit.
Under the current reserve-building regime, 20% goes to Security & Maintenance, 40% to reserves and 40% to Step 3. Step 3 creates the 18% acquisition, 18% USDS reward and 4% acquisition/burn legs relative to original Net Revenue.
Dated cash-ledger/buyback analytics recorded about $2.16M of actual spending in the retrieved 30-day window. Policy is executing, not merely announced.
Reserve replenishment, correlated losses and governance can reduce acquisition or require emergency issuance. Exact net liquid-float absorption is not reconstructed.
Investment access and proxy expectations are separate from current operating capture.
01Supported
Economic/capture expectations
Historical MKR/SKY repricing around improved business economics and buyback changes supports a proxy channel. Crypto/DeFi beta and causality remain inseparable.
Galaxy disclosed a direct SKY purchase; SDEV accumulated a major largely staked position. Institutional asset holdings alone are not institutions adopting or purchasing SKY.
The large financial system produces positive defined Net Revenue and live Prime-to-Core settlements.
Governance-directed market purchases execute; a permanent burn leg is live.
Routine converter minting and inflationary rewards were largely removed; staking uses existing inventory.
Galaxy provides bilateral funded USDS/collateral and direct SKY evidence rather than only a logo relationship.
What Is Not Proven
SKY holders own assets, have redemption rights or a contractual share of profit.
All purchased SKY is burned or net liquid float is proven to fall after every distribution/conversion.
The current supply is an unconditional hard cap or the exact modern emergency mint execution path is fully reconstructed.
Dedicated reserves alone cover all modeled risk, represent the whole loss waterfall or establish an insolvency probability.
Token economics / structural supply
Approximately 23.46B SKY existed in the dated snapshot. Ordinary emissions and converter minting were largely eliminated; Converter V2 uses prefunded existing SKY. The token remains auth-mintable and governance permits exceptional insolvency recapitalization, so normal-state supply is not an immutable cap.
The 18% acquisition-for-stakers leg differs from the 4% burn leg. Treasury-funded reward vests replace prior schedules rather than simply adding every headline amount; distributed SKY becomes seller-capable. Roughly 17.3B staked SKY is a reversible float sink, not equivalent fresh purchase demand.
The 13 September migration snapshot implied about 1.93B SKY-equivalent entitlement behind unconverted MKR. That is existing inventory transitioning to holders, not new minting. Delayed-migration penalty SKY is governance-collectable converter inventory, not automatic burn.
SDEV’s approximately 2.315B SKY position is both major outside demand and contingent seller concentration. Six Ranked Delegates controlled most delegated voting power; delegated votes are not beneficial ownership. Exact synchronized acquisition/burn/staking/migration/selling absorption remains unresolved.
Upgrade / proving triggers
Multi-quarter net revenue growth and durable SKY acquisition/burn continue while strategic-holder selling remains limited.
Multi-quarter Net Revenue after Security & Maintenance grows while executed acquisition/burn persists.
Reserves and total loss absorption strengthen relative to risk without simply expanding the risky book.
More funded Galaxy-quality bilateral adoption creates recurring USDS/SKY demand.
Migration and strategic-holder distributions remain manageable; governance preserves executed capture.
Downgrade triggers
Governance cuts purchase policy, major credit losses emerge, or strategic inventory is monetized into weak liquidity.
Savings costs stay sticky while asset yields fall and funding exits.
Correlated Prime/RWA/stablecoin losses consume capital or governance suspends purchases.
Strategic holders monetize large inventory into weak liquidity or exceptional recapitalization issuance executes.
Agent leakage, regulatory restrictions or concentrated governance materially weaken the funding/capture architecture.
Load-bearing evidence
Ten selected canonical records, including adverse evidence. Expand the register for additional facts, source references and limits.
Sky operates an approximately $11B-scale consolidated financial book with large stablecoin liabilities, savings balances and diversified earning-asset channels.
System effect
establishes Sky as a large operating onchain financial system.
Token effect
only retained surplus routed through governance reaches SKY.
What is not proven
that headline balance-sheet scale equals equity-like value or permanent funding.
Source reference
Sky frozen report; Sky Financial Analytics
Original Ledger reference has no direct URL; see the dated report mapping below.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates. Financial telemetry is unaudited management/onchain analytics, not GAAP/IFRS accounts.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Limits & record details
Record type
Native Engine / Footprint
Directional effect
Supportive
Evidence date
September 2026
Entity
Sky financial system
Evidence class / relevance
Network proof / Network
Scorecard handoff
System Importance / Adoption — Potential-change candidate — classification retained; no score changed.
June/July/August Net Revenue was approximately $13.71M/$10.52M/$15.75M; 2026 YTD Net Revenue was ~$112.55M and Net Surplus after distributions ~$83.73M.
System effect
business economics are positive and material.
Token effect
provides the funding base for reserve accumulation and SKY acquisition.
What is not proven
GAAP/IFRS corporate profit or permanent run rate.
Source reference
Sky frozen report; Sky Financial Analytics
Original Ledger reference has no direct URL; see the dated report mapping below.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates. Financial telemetry is unaudited management/onchain analytics, not GAAP/IFRS accounts.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Limits & record details
Record type
Native Engine / Footprint
Directional effect
Supportive
Evidence date
June–August 2026 / 2026 YTD
Entity
Sky
Evidence class / relevance
Network proof / Economic Capture
Scorecard handoff
Economic Capture — Review — classification retained; no score changed.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates. Financial telemetry is unaudited management/onchain analytics, not GAAP/IFRS accounts.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Limits & record details
Record type
Native Mechanism
Directional effect
Supportive
Evidence date
September 2026
Entity
Sky Treasury Management Function
Evidence class / relevance
Tokenomics proof / Economic Capture
Scorecard handoff
Current Token Capture / Mechanical Transmission — Potential-change candidate — classification retained; no score changed.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates. Financial telemetry is unaudited management/onchain analytics, not GAAP/IFRS accounts.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Limits & record details
Record type
Access / External Acquisition
Directional effect
Supportive
Evidence date
latest retrieved 30-day window
Entity
Sky buyback system
Evidence class / relevance
Tokenomics proof / Economic Capture
Scorecard handoff
Current Token Capture — Review — classification retained; no score changed.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Limits & record details
Record type
Native Mechanism
Directional effect
Supportive
Evidence date
September 2026
Entity
Sky governance / burn mechanism
Evidence class / relevance
Tokenomics proof / Supply
Scorecard handoff
Supply / Current Token Capture — Potential-change candidate — classification retained; no score changed.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
~$338.65M Total RRC, ~$309.98M Sky-attributed RRC after Prime first-loss, and ~$89.66M dedicated Sky Reserves implied ~28.93% reserve coverage of modeled Sky RRC.
System effect
financial scale carries meaningful capital needs.
Token effect
undercapitalization can divert surplus from SKY acquisition or trigger recapitalization risk.
What is not proven
expected loss, stress-loss ceiling or insolvency probability.
Source reference
Sky frozen report
Original Ledger reference has no direct URL; see the dated report mapping below.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates. Financial telemetry is unaudited management/onchain analytics, not GAAP/IFRS accounts.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
institutional treasury, collateral and direct SKY demand
Live production · Active
Galaxy placed $100M of treasury into sUSDS, approved sUSDS as collateral across its institutional trading business and disclosed a direct SKY purchase.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
~$11.39B earning assets at ~3.34% versus ~$5.09B interest-bearing liabilities at ~3.52% produced roughly $201M spot annualized NII; TTM NII was ~$200.25M.
System effect
Sky operates a genuine spread-based balance sheet.
Token effect
supports surplus generation but only indirectly reaches SKY.
What is not proven
$200M NII equals protocol profit.
Source reference
Sky frozen report
Original Ledger reference has no direct URL; see the dated report mapping below.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates. Financial telemetry is unaudited management/onchain analytics, not GAAP/IFRS accounts.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Limits & record details
Record type
Native Engine / Footprint
Directional effect
Supportive
Evidence date
late August 2026
Entity
Sky interest book
Evidence class / relevance
Network proof / Economic Capture
Scorecard handoff
Economic Capture — Review — classification retained; no score changed.
SKY-USDS-FUNDING-01stablecoin liabilities and savings funding
synchronized view showed ~$1.75B free USDS, ~$4.67B sUSDS, ~$209M stUSDS, ~$4.58B circulating DAI and ~$203M DAI savings; methodologies differ from the later ~$9.85B combined top-level view.
System effect
very large dollar funding franchise.
Token effect
supports earnings capacity, but funding can move with rates/risk.
What is not proven
complete funding stickiness or one interchangeable definition of supply.
Source reference
Sky frozen report
Original Ledger reference has no direct URL; see the dated report mapping below.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates. Financial telemetry is unaudited management/onchain analytics, not GAAP/IFRS accounts.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Limits & record details
Record type
Native Engine / Footprint
Directional effect
Mixed
Evidence date
September 2026
Entity
USDS / sUSDS / DAI funding base
Evidence class / relevance
Network proof / Network
Scorecard handoff
System Importance / Funding Durability — Review — classification retained; no score changed.
multi-billion-dollar sUSDS balances persisted despite lower headline rates than some competitors, but material outflows have occurred when relative economics changed.
System effect
funding is meaningful but mobile.
Token effect
funding outflows can compress surplus and SKY acquisition.
What is not proven
stable long-term deposit beta under materially lower rates.
Source reference
Sky frozen report
Original Ledger reference has no direct URL; see the dated report mapping below.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates. Financial telemetry is unaudited management/onchain analytics, not GAAP/IFRS accounts.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates. Financial telemetry is unaudited management/onchain analytics, not GAAP/IFRS accounts.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Limits & record details
Record type
Connection Family
Directional effect
Supportive
Evidence date
September 2026
Entity
Sky / Grove / institutional asset portfolio
Evidence class / relevance
Network proof / Network
Scorecard handoff
System Importance / Adoption — Review — classification retained; no score changed.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Limits & record details
Record type
Connection Family
Directional effect
Supportive
Evidence date
2026
Entity
Grove / Galaxy
Evidence class / relevance
Network proof / Network
Scorecard handoff
System Importance / Adoption — Potential-change candidate — classification retained; no score changed.
SKY-ROBINHOOD-SPARK-01decentralized yield distribution
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates. Financial telemetry is unaudited management/onchain analytics, not GAAP/IFRS accounts.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Dated research scope / source limitation · 2026 Separate Agent tokens/foundations/treasuries/residual economics are the frozen Sky report’s scoped capture/bypass finding. The current exact governance/right/share locators remain unbound. Do not infer a fixed present Sky Core share, enforceable holder claim or complete census of Agent contracts from this synthesis. Canonical Stage, Tier and Lifecycle are research classifications retained from the accepted Ledger; this notice is not new source verification.
Prime Agents can maintain separate tokens, foundations, treasuries and residual economics even while Sky Core receives a large share.
System effect
specialization expands system capability.
Token effect
ecosystem growth cannot automatically be attributed to SKY.
What is not proven
that value leakage dominates Sky Core economics.
Source reference
Sky frozen report
Direct source link pending verification.
Source mappings & forensic provenance
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates. Financial telemetry is unaudited management/onchain analytics, not GAAP/IFRS accounts.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Limits & record details
Record type
Native Engine / Footprint
Directional effect
Supportive
Evidence date
September 2026
Entity
SKY token
Evidence class / relevance
Tokenomics proof / Supply
Scorecard handoff
Supply — Potential-change candidate — classification retained; no score changed.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Limits & record details
Record type
Native Engine / Footprint
Directional effect
Mixed
Evidence date
13 September 2026 snapshot
Entity
MKR→SKY converter
Evidence class / relevance
Tokenomics proof / Supply
Scorecard handoff
Supply — Review — classification retained; no score changed.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Limits & record details
Record type
Governance
Directional effect
Neutral
Evidence date
current
Entity
Converter V2
Evidence class / relevance
Tokenomics proof / Supply
Scorecard handoff
Supply — Review — classification retained; no score changed.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
S&P Global Ratings affirmed Sky Protocol at `B-` with a Stable outlook. S&P reported combined USDS/DAI supply of about $9.5B, Sky reserves of about $92M as of 17 September against a $150M target, roughly $4.92B of lower-risk USDC and tokenized-money-market-fund assets (~50% of USDS/DAI circulation), and approximately $1B of Prime-Agent OTC lending. S&P described risk-adjusted capitalization as moderately improved while still weak and highlighted governance/holder concentration and ecosystem complexity as rating weaknesses.
System effect
provides high-quality independent validation of both Sky's substantial operating scale and its improving-but-still-thin capital position as Prime activity expands.
Token effect
mixed: stronger reserves/lower-risk assets reduce recapitalization risk, while weak capitalization and growing complex credit exposure can divert surplus from SKY acquisition/burn or raise contingent dilution risk.
What is not proven
a default probability, extreme-tail loss ceiling, permanence of the asset mix or reserve trajectory, or that the `B-` rating maps directly to SKY-token value.
Source reference
S&P Global Ratings 1 Oct. 2026 — https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3637232
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates. Financial telemetry is unaudited management/onchain analytics, not GAAP/IFRS accounts.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Limits & record details
Record type
Risk / Bypass
Directional effect
Mixed
Evidence date
September 2026
Entity
Spark / Grove / Obex / Osero
Evidence class / relevance
Network proof / Risk
Scorecard handoff
Risk — Review — classification retained; no score changed.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates. Financial telemetry is unaudited management/onchain analytics, not GAAP/IFRS accounts.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Limits & record details
Record type
Risk / Bypass
Directional effect
Damaging
Evidence date
September 2026
Entity
PSM / USDC
Evidence class / relevance
Network proof / Risk
Scorecard handoff
Risk — Review — classification retained; no score changed.
Contextual research — conditional source deferral · current risk framework Research context at current risk framework. Correlated tails are analytical risk synthesis, not independent historical losses; can remain as a qualified structural risk caveat. This is not independently verified live production, token capture, legal authorization or a current quantitative measurement. It adds no new score credit. Canonical Stage, Tier and Lifecycle are research classifications retained from the accepted Ledger; this notice is not new source verification.
major asset/risk channels share crypto, liquidity, stablecoin, private-credit and institutional-counterparty dependencies.
System effect
standardized RRC may understate extreme correlated events.
Token effect
correlated loss is the clearest path from surplus beneficiary to dilution-bearing recapitalization token.
What is not proven
robust percentile tail-loss magnitude.
Source reference
Sky frozen report
Direct source link pending verification.
Source mappings & forensic provenance
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates. Financial telemetry is unaudited management/onchain analytics, not GAAP/IFRS accounts.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates. Financial telemetry is unaudited management/onchain analytics, not GAAP/IFRS accounts.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
payments/distribution competition and asset-input opportunity
Live scaled production · Active
Contextual research — conditional source deferral · September 2026 Research context at September 2026. Not a ranking of verified issuer quality or guarantee that all regulated stablecoins are high-quality collateral; retain contextual scope. This is not independently verified live production, token capture, legal authorization or a current quantitative measurement. It adds no new score credit. Canonical Stage, Tier and Lifecycle are research classifications retained from the accepted Ledger; this notice is not new source verification.
regulated stablecoins have stronger payments/distribution, but can also serve as high-quality inputs/collateral for Sky.
System effect
Sky's stronger niche is capital allocation/yield rather than universal payment money.
Token effect
threat if USDS funding erodes; opportunity if regulated dollars enlarge Sky's investable base.
What is not proven
net long-run competitive effect on Sky.
Source reference
Sky frozen report
Direct source link pending verification.
Source mappings & forensic provenance
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
MKR/SKY historically responded strongly to shifts in protocol economics and token-capture expectations, including the 2023 Smart Burn period and September 2026 rerating.
System effect
none directly.
Token effect
capture improvements can reprice SKY before long-run accumulation fully develops.
What is not proven
clean causal isolation from DeFi/crypto beta.
Source reference
Sky frozen report
Original Ledger reference has no direct URL; see the dated report mapping below.
Exact URLs supplied by the bound dated report; source classes and snapshot definitions remain qualified. Live availability was not retested. These mappings do not independently verify later Ledger updates.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Limits & record details
Record type
Market Transmission
Directional effect
Supportive
Evidence date
historical through September 2026
Entity
MKR/SKY public market
Evidence class / relevance
Sentiment/reflexive proof / Market Transmission
Scorecard handoff
Market Transmission — Review — classification retained; no score changed.
SKY-MOODYS-RATING-01independent counterparty risk rating; distinguish from issuer credit rating
independent counterparty risk rating; distinguish from issuer credit rating
Live production · Corrected
Moody's own indexed 6 October 2026 action identifies a B3 counterparty risk rating for Sky Protocol. Sky Frontier Foundation's 8 October correction changed its release headline from 'issuer rating' to 'counterparty risk rating'; its syndicated body still contains inconsistent issuer-rating terminology and reports a Stable outlook. The outlook remains issuer-reported, not independently agency-verified in this adjudication. S&P Global's distinct B− issuer credit rating is a different rating category.
System effect
strengthens external institutional legibility of Sky's credit profile and confirms that the protocol is being assessed through conventional credit-risk frameworks rather than only crypto-native metrics.
Token effect
mixed/indirect. Independent credit assessment can improve institutional confidence and access, but it does not itself create SKY holder cash flow, permanent absorption or lower contingent recapitalization risk enough to warrant direct token credit.
What is not proven
the full body, covered liabilities, rationale, sensitivities or Stable outlook directly from Moody's original agency action; equivalence to a Moody's issuer credit rating or direct comparability with S&P's B− issuer credit rating; a precise default probability, permanent capital/reserve adequacy, future protocol profitability, future SKY buyback/burn policy, or a contractual earnings claim for SKY holders.
Source reference
Moody's 6 Oct. 2026 agency-action index (rating type/level visible; full action body not independently retrieved) — https://ratings.moodys.com/ratings-news/474486 ; Sky Frontier Foundation 8 Oct. 2026 corrected issuer announcement (headline corrected; body retains inconsistent issuer/outlook language, not independent agency proof) — https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/moodys-ratings-assigns-first-counterparty-risk-rating-to-sky-protocol-302902463.html ; S&P assessment is separately recorded under `SKY-SP-RATING-01`, and is not used to verify the Moody's action/outlook.
Direct source link pending verification — Moody's full agency action, rated scope, rationale and outlook remain unresolved. Exact action URL returned no retrievable body on 9 October. The corrected issuer headline supports counterparty-risk wording; its body retains inconsistent issuer terminology and issuer-reported Stable outlook. Do not treat this as independent agency-outlook verification.
Canonical source reference retained above. Supplemental mappings do not overwrite the Ledger.
Limits & record details
Record type
Risk / Bypass
Directional effect
Mixed
Evidence date
6–8 October 2026 (8 October issuer wording correction)
Entity
Moody's Ratings; Sky Protocol
Evidence class / relevance
Network proof / Risk
Scorecard handoff
Risk / System Importance / Market Transmission — Hold (rating-type factual correction) — classification retained; no score changed.
What Changed / history
29 September 2026 — audited/frozen report cutoff. The capital-risk snapshot is 21 September; monthly and market windows retain their individual dates rather than becoming same-day estimates.
30 September — frozen synchronized Score Registry; 2 October — Ledger reconciliation. No definitively dated post-report SKY extension was identified in the selected register. Coarse current/September dates cannot establish complete freshness or numerical incorporation.
The $150M reserve floor is an operating policy condition, not a forecast date or guarantee of a higher future buyback allocation. Current legal treatment of issuerless/decentralized USDS under the report’s regulatory frame remains unresolved.
Research authority / freshness
Research depth
Audited Deep Research
Forensic authority
Sky / SKY AUDITED FINAL FROZEN · evidence cutoff 29 September 2026
Evidence authority
Canonical Ledger vNext FINAL FROZEN · 2026-10-23
Numerical authority
Scorecard v2 · registry 2026-09-30
Methodology
v2.0-STRUCTURAL-FROZEN
Public publication
Initial public release
Material public modification
Not applicable before public publication
Presentation
Dated controlled research projection; material public changes require human review.
